
Comparisons
Best NFL Arbitrage Betting Tools for 2026
Five NFL arbitrage betting tools ranked on U.S. coverage, live scanning and price, plus the fee math that decides what an NFL arb pays.
Comparison
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Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Novig for NFL bettors: pre-game and live fees, maker costs, CFTC status, state orders, age limits, NFL markets and withdrawals.
Pre-game cost: Novig charges no fee to either side of a pre-game straight trade, so 100 contracts on an NFL side at 50 cents cost $50.00. It’s $51.75 to take the posted price on Kalshi and $51.74 on Polymarket US.
Live cost: an in-game NFL taker pays $0.75 per 100 contracts at 50 cents on Novig, against $1.75 on Kalshi and $1.74 on Polymarket US.
Makers: Novig and Polymarket US charge makers nothing. Polymarket US currently pays makers a rebate, and Novig credits makers on live and futures fills. Kalshi charges makers on its NFL markets, up to $0.44 per 100 contracts.
Regulation: all three are designated contract markets regulated by the CFTC. Kalshi was designated in 2020, Polymarket US runs on QCX LLC, designated in 2025, and Novig runs on Ludlow Exchange, LLC, designated on June 16, 2026.
Age and states: Kalshi and Polymarket US accept users at 18. Novig requires 21 and isn’t available in Arizona, Michigan or Nevada.
Kalshi, Polymarket US and Novig all list NFL games as contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens and $0 if it doesn’t. A 55-cent price on the Bills to win is the market’s 55% estimate, and each platform matches the buyer with another user instead of taking the other side itself.
On a plain NFL side or total before kickoff, Novig charges neither side of the trade, while Kalshi and Polymarket US charge the taker about $1.75 per 100 contracts at even money. The prediction markets vs sportsbooks guide covers how any of the three compares with a sportsbook at -110.
Novig | Kalshi | Polymarket US | |
|---|---|---|---|
Operating company | Ludlow Exchange, LLC, d/b/a Novig | KalshiEX LLC | QCX LLC, d/b/a Polymarket US |
CFTC designation | June 16, 2026 | November 2020 | July 2025, bought by Polymarket in 2025 |
Taker fee, 100 contracts at 50 cents | None pre-game, $0.75 live | $1.75 | $1.74 |
Maker fee on NFL markets | None | Up to $0.44 per 100 contracts | None |
Minimum age | 21 | 18 | 18 |
NFL markets | Winners, spreads, totals, first half, team totals, props, parlays | Winners, spreads, totals, props, combos | Winners, spreads, totals, props, combos |
In-game trading | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Withdrawal methods | Bank transfer, debit card, Venmo | ACH, debit card, PayPal, Venmo, crypto | Debit card, ACH, PayPal, Venmo, plus Apple Pay and USDC on iPhone |
Apps | iPhone, Android, web | Mobile apps, web | Phone app |
Not available | Arizona, Michigan, Nevada | Sports contracts blocked by court order in Nevada and Michigan | Blocked by court order in Nevada |
The NFL betting sites ranking compares all three with the major sportsbooks, and the weekly NFL odds page lists the current week’s lines.
All three charge on the same shape of formula: a coefficient times the price times one minus the price, per contract. The fee’s largest at 50 cents and shrinks toward a heavy favorite or a long shot.
Under its published fee schedule, Novig charges no fee to the maker or the taker on a pre-game straight trade, which covers a spread, total, winner or player prop taken before kickoff. Live NFL straight trades charge the taker 0.03 x price x (1 - price), or $0.75 per 100 contracts at 50 cents. The maker fee is $0 on every trade type, and a maker whose resting order fills during a live game gets a cash credit of 50% of the taker’s fee, about $0.38 per 100 contracts at 50 cents. On futures, the maker credit is 70% of the taker’s fee.
Kalshi’s general taker coefficient is 0.07 under its fee schedule effective July 7, 2026, which comes to $1.75 per 100 contracts at 50 cents. Kalshi also charges makers on its NFL game, spread, total and anytime touchdown series, at 0.0175 x price x (1 - price), so a resting order that fills at 50 cents pays about $0.44 per 100 contracts.
Polymarket US’s taker coefficient is 0.0695, or $1.74 per 100 contracts at 50 cents. A Polymarket US maker doesn’t pay a fee and currently gets a rebate of $0.31 per 100 contracts at 50 cents. From October 19, 2026, that rebate goes only to makers trading $10 million or more a month, and the taker fee doesn’t change.
Trade, 100 contracts at 50 cents | Cost | Payout if it wins | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
Novig, pre-game, maker or taker | $50.00 | $100 | 50.00% |
Novig, live, taker | $50.75 | $100 | 50.75% |
Kalshi, taker | $51.75 | $100 | 51.75% |
Kalshi, maker on an NFL market | $50.44 | $100 | 50.44% |
Polymarket US, taker | $51.74 | $100 | 51.74% |
Polymarket US, maker, before any rebate | $50.00 | $100 | 50.00% |
For comparison, a sportsbook price of -110 needs a 52.38% win rate. Parlays and combos carry their own fee curves on all three platforms, so the math above doesn’t apply to them.
All three are designated contract markets under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the same federal category as a futures exchange. The CFTC designated KalshiEX LLC in November 2020. Polymarket’s US platform runs on QCX LLC, known as QCEX, which the CFTC designated on July 9, 2025, and which Polymarket bought that year. Novig’s contracts trade on Ludlow Exchange, LLC, d/b/a Novig, which the CFTC designated on June 16, 2026.
The global polymarket.com site is a separate platform that isn’t open to US users. Federal regulation is the basis all three use to list NFL contracts in states that haven’t legalized sports betting, and it’s the claim several states are contesting.
All three argue that the Commodity Exchange Act lets them list sports contracts across states. Federal appeals courts have split on that: the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi against New Jersey in April 2026, while the Ninth Circuit in a Nevada case in August 2026 and the Sixth Circuit in the Tennessee and Ohio cases in September 2026 sided with the states. New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to review its case.
Novig’s help center says it isn’t available in Arizona, Michigan or Nevada. Kalshi’s sports contracts are blocked by court order in Nevada and in Michigan, where a June restraining order became a preliminary injunction in September 2026. A Nevada judge granted the state’s Gaming Control Board a preliminary injunction against Polymarket on May 29, 2026, after a temporary restraining order in January.
Connecticut sued Kalshi in early September, and on September 10 the state announced that its Department of Consumer Protection had issued cease-and-desist orders to nine platforms, Polymarket and Novig among them. Missouri’s attorney general sent cease-and-desist letters dated September 16 and 17 to six platforms, including Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig. The state-by-state guide tracks these actions alongside each state’s sportsbook law.
Kalshi and Polymarket US both accept users at 18. Novig won’t open an account for anyone under 21, the same minimum most state-licensed sportsbooks use.
Novig lists NFL winners, spreads, totals, first-half winners, spreads and totals, team totals and player props for single games. Its NFL futures cover playoffs, win totals, conference and division winners, the champion and season awards such as MVP and the rookie awards. Parlays are priced by Novig’s liquidity providers when you build one, so a parlay can’t be posted as a resting order.
Kalshi lists NFL game winners, spreads, total points and player props such as anytime touchdown scorer, along with season markets on the Super Bowl, MVP and division winners. Its combos, Kalshi’s version of a parlay, are priced through a request-for-quote system: the platform asks other participants for a price on that exact combination, and if nobody quotes it, the order doesn’t fill.
Polymarket US lists NFL winners, spreads, totals, player props and futures, before kickoff and in-game. Its combos take two to 10 legs and are also priced on request. If an NFL game ends in a tie, Polymarket US settles its winner contracts at 50 cents each, and its spreads and totals use half points so they can’t push.
Depth varies by market on all three. A main-line spread on a Sunday afternoon game draws far more orders than a backup tight end’s receiving yards, and the distance between the best buy and sell price grows as orders thin out. On Novig, prices in thinly traded markets depend on who’s posting orders, so that gap can be wider there than on the main lines. The same NFL side can trade at different prices on each platform, which is what arbitrage betting works from.
Novig runs on the web and in apps for iPhone and Android. Kalshi runs on the web and in mobile apps. Polymarket US launched as a phone app with sign-up through a Google or Apple account, and its help center lists some payment methods, Apple Pay and USDC among them, as iPhone-only.
Novig doesn’t charge a fee on bank transfer deposits or on stablecoin deposits in USDC or USDT. Credit card, debit card and Apple Pay deposits carry a 3% fee. Withdrawals go out by bank transfer, debit card or Venmo, with a $10 minimum, and a deposit has to settle, typically within a few business days, before the money from it can be withdrawn.
On Kalshi, ACH deposits and withdrawals and debit card withdrawals are free, and a debit card withdrawal usually arrives within a few hours. Card deposits cost up to 2%. Kalshi also pays out to PayPal, Venmo and crypto wallets.
Withdrawals from Polymarket US are free. Debit card and ACH withdrawals typically take three to four business days, and a deposit has to clear, which takes another three to four business days, before money tied to it can come out.
Taking pre-game sides and totals at the posted price: Novig, which charges neither side of a pre-game straight trade.
Trading NFL games live as a taker: Novig, at $0.75 per 100 contracts at 50 cents against about $1.75 on the other two.
Posting resting orders: Novig or Polymarket US, since neither charges makers. Polymarket US’s rebate narrows to high-volume makers from October 19.
Under 21: Kalshi or Polymarket US, since Novig requires users to be 21.
Fast withdrawals: Kalshi, whose debit card withdrawals usually land within hours and which also pays out to PayPal.
Before kickoff, Novig, because it charges no fee to either side of a pre-game straight trade. Taking the posted price on Kalshi costs $1.75 per 100 contracts at 50 cents and on Polymarket US $1.74. Live, a Novig taker pays $0.75 per 100 contracts at 50 cents.
All three are regulated by the CFTC as designated contract markets. Court orders block Kalshi’s sports contracts in Nevada and Michigan and block Polymarket in Nevada, and Novig isn’t available in Arizona, Michigan or Nevada. Federal appeals courts have split on whether states can stop them.
It’s 18 on Kalshi and Polymarket US and 21 on Novig.
Yes. Kalshi and Polymarket US call them combos and price each one by request for quote, so a combination nobody quotes won’t fill. Novig’s parlays are priced by its liquidity providers, with the fee included in the quoted price.
Kalshi charges makers on its NFL markets, up to $0.44 per 100 contracts at 50 cents. Polymarket US and Novig charge makers nothing, and Novig credits makers half the taker fee on live fills and 70% on futures fills.
Kalshi debit card withdrawals usually arrive within a few hours. Polymarket US debit card and ACH withdrawals take three to four business days. On Novig and Polymarket US, the deposit behind a withdrawal has to clear first.

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