Moneyline Betting Explained: How NFL Moneyline Odds Work

Key takeaways

• Definition: a moneyline bet is a pick on which team wins the game outright. The margin of victory doesn’t matter.

• Reading the price: a minus number is what you risk to win $100, and a plus number is what $100 wins. At -175 you risk $175 to win $100; at +150, $100 wins $150.

• Implied probability: -175 implies 63.64% and +150 implies 40%. The pair adds up to 103.64%, and the 3.64 points over 100% is the sportsbook’s margin.

• Ties: an NFL regular-season game still level after one 10-minute overtime period ends in a tie, and a two-way moneyline on it is graded as a push.

• Prediction markets: a contract at 55 cents implies a 55% chance, the same as about -122 in American odds, so the probability is readable without converting anything.

What a moneyline bet is

A moneyline bet is a bet on which team wins the game. There’s no point spread attached, so a one-point win and a 30-point win pay the same. The odds do the job a spread would otherwise do: the favorite costs more to back, and the underdog pays more when it wins.

Every NFL game carries a moneyline next to the spread and the total, all in American odds. The beginner’s guide to betting on football covers the whole board; the moneyline is the simplest place to learn the arithmetic behind every price, because there’s no line to adjust for.

How to read minus and plus moneyline odds

Take a game with the home favorite at -175 and the road underdog at +150. The minus sign marks the favorite: at -175, you’d risk $175 to win $100. The plus sign marks the underdog: +150 means a $100 bet wins $150. A winning bet also returns the stake, so the favorite backer collects $275 and the underdog backer $250.

Nobody’s required to bet exactly $100. The payout scales in the same ratio to any stake:

When two teams are rated close to even, both sides can carry a minus price, such as -110 on each. That’s a pick’em, and the favorite-underdog labels stop meaning much. Current NFL prices are on the weekly odds page.

Moneyline payout math

Three formulas cover every moneyline payout, and they don’t use the sign, so drop it first.

• Minus odds: profit = stake x 100 / odds. $40 at -175 is 40 x 100 / 175, or $22.86.

• Plus odds: profit = stake x odds / 100. $40 at +150 is 40 x 150 / 100, or $60.

• A set amount on a favorite: stake = target x odds / 100. It takes $87.50 to win $50 at -175.

• Decimal shortcut: -175 is 1.571 in decimal odds (1 + 100/175) and +150 is 2.50. Stake times the decimal price is what’s returned, so $40 brings back $62.86 and $100 respectively.

Converting moneyline odds to implied probability

Every moneyline price implies a win probability, which is also the rate at which a bet at that price breaks even.

• Minus odds: odds / (odds + 100). -175 is 175 / 275, or 63.64%.

• Plus odds: 100 / (odds + 100). +150 is 100 / 250, or 40%.

• Probability of 50% or more back to odds: -100 x p / (1 - p). A 55% chance is about -122.

• Probability under 50% back to odds: 100 x (1 - p) / p. A 40% chance is +150, which is where the example started.

Break-even rates

A bettor who backs -175 favorites all season needs them to win 63.64% of the time to come out level. A favorite that wins 62% of the time is a losing bet at -175, even though it’ll win most weeks.

The vig on a two-way moneyline

Add the implied probabilities from the example game: 63.64% plus 40% is 103.64%. A fair two-way market sums to exactly 100%, and this one doesn’t. The extra 3.64 points is the vig, the margin the sportsbook builds into the two prices.

Dividing each side by 103.64% strips it out. The favorite’s no-vig probability is 61.40% and the underdog’s is 38.60%, which add to 100%. In American odds, that’s about -159 and +159. So the book deals the favorite at -175 instead of -159 and the underdog at +150 instead of +159, shading both sides.

The book’s hold, the share of all money wagered it keeps if action is balanced, is 1 - 1 / 1.0364, or 3.51%. A spread at -110 on both sides sums to 104.76% and holds 4.55%. The same addition compares books: of two moneyline pairs on one game, the pair with the smaller total is cheaper to bet.

Moneyline vs. point spread

The point spread asks whether a team wins by more than a set margin, usually at -110 on both sides. The moneyline asks only who wins, at a price that widens with the gap between the teams. Take a hypothetical three-point favorite at -3 on the spread and -150 on the moneyline, with the underdog at +3 and +130:

• Underdog wins outright: the moneyline at +130 pays $130 on $100, against $90.91 for +3 at -110.

• Favorite wins by one or two: the favorite’s moneyline cashes and -3 loses. The underdog at +3 also cashes, while its moneyline loses.

• Favorite wins by exactly three: the moneyline cashes and the spread’s a push.

• Favorite wins by four or more: both favorite bets cash, and the spread pays more on $100 ($90.91 against $66.67).

• Heavy favorites: at -400, the moneyline risks $400 to win $100 and needs an 80% win rate to break even. A spread bet on the same team risks $110 to win $100.

How ties and overtime are graded

NFL moneylines are graded on the final result, overtime included. Since 2025, regular-season overtime gives both teams a chance to possess the ball and runs one 10-minute period. If it’s still level when the period ends, the game goes in the books as a tie. Playoff games keep going until someone wins.

On a standard two-way moneyline, a tie is graded as a push and both sides get their stakes back. Some books also post a three-way moneyline that lists the tie as its own outcome at a long price, and in that market a tie makes both team bets losers. In a parlay, a pushed leg usually drops out and the ticket is paid on the remaining legs at a shorter price.

Moneyline parlays

A moneyline parlay strings two or more winners onto one ticket, and every leg has to hit. The price comes from multiplying the decimal odds. Two favorites at -175 and -150 are 1.571 and 1.667 in decimal. Multiplied, that’s 2.619, or about +162, so a $20 parlay returns $52.38 if both win, which is $32.38 in profit.

The vig compounds across legs. With the margin stripped from each game (the -150 favorite faces a +130 underdog here), the fair chance of both favorites winning is 35.60%, which is a fair price of about +181. The gap between +162 and +181 is two games’ worth of margin on one ticket. Three favorites at -300 each combine to about +137, a price that breaks even at 42.19%.

Live moneylines

Live moneylines are posted after kickoff and reprice after every score and injury. Say the -175 favorite trails by seven at halftime, and the live price flips to +240 for the favorite and -300 for the team that’s ahead. Those imply 29.41% and 75%, a total of 104.41%, so in this example the margin is wider than the 3.64 points the same game carried before kickoff.

Live markets lock while a play is running and reopen between plays. The price can also move between tapping a selection and confirming it, in which case the app asks the bettor to accept the new number.

Moneylines on prediction markets

Prediction markets list the same bet as a contract that pays $1 if the team wins. The price, in cents, is the implied probability with no conversion: a contract at 55 cents implies 55%, the same as about -122 in American odds. 100 contracts cost $55 and pay $45 in profit if the team wins.

The other side of each contract is another trader rather than the house, so there’s no vig built into the price. The cost shows up as fees, which differ by platform and by bet type. Novig, for one, doesn’t charge a fee on pre-game straight trades. On live NFL trades the taker pays 0.03 x price x (1 - price) per contract, which comes to $0.75 on 100 contracts at 50 cents. The full comparison is in prediction markets vs. sportsbooks.

Moneyline betting FAQ

What does a +200 moneyline mean?

A $100 bet wins $200 in profit and returns $300 with the stake. That’s a 33.33% implied chance of winning.

Do NFL moneyline bets include overtime?

Yes. Full-game moneylines are graded on the final score after overtime. A regular-season game that’s still tied after overtime is a push on a two-way moneyline.

Is the moneyline or the spread the better bet?

Neither is better in general. The moneyline suits an underdog you expect to win outright, and the spread usually suits a heavy favorite, where the moneyline asks you to risk several times what you’d win.

Why do both teams sometimes have negative moneyline odds?

When the teams are rated about even, the book puts a minus price on both sides, such as -110 and -110. The two prices sum to more than 100% in implied probability, and the excess is the vig.