What Is a Point Spread? How NFL Spreads Work

Key takeaways

• Definition: a point spread is a handicap on the margin of victory. The favorite has to win by more than the number, and the underdog covers by winning outright or losing by less than it.

• Price: NFL spreads usually cost -110 on each side, so a spread bettor has to win 52.38% of bets to break even.

• Pushes: when the margin lands exactly on a whole-number spread, the stake comes back. A half-point spread can’t push.

• Key numbers: from 2015 through 2025, 14.8% of NFL games ended with a three-point margin and 8.7% with a seven-point margin, so half points around 3 and 7 are worth the most.

• Spread or moneyline: the spread asks by how much a team wins, and the moneyline asks only who wins. A spread usually pays the same on both sides, while a moneyline pays less on the favorite and more on the underdog.

What a point spread is

A point spread is a bet on the margin of victory. The sportsbook posts a number of points meant to split a game into two sides that are about equally likely to win. The favorite has to win by more than that number, and the underdog gets those points added to its final score.

That’s what lets two unequal teams be bet at the same price, and it’s why both sides of an NFL spread usually carry identical odds.

A worked NFL example

Take a hypothetical line with the Eagles at home against the Giants: Eagles -6.5, Giants +6.5, both at -110. Here’s how three possible finals grade:

The Eagles bettor needed a win by seven or more. The Giants bettor wins if New York loses by six or fewer or wins the game. At most sportsbooks, overtime points count toward the full-game spread.

Reading favorite and underdog notation

The minus sign marks the favorite and the plus sign marks the underdog, and the two numbers always mirror each other. A listing of “Eagles -6.5 (-110)” carries two numbers: the spread, then the price in parentheses.

A game listed as “PK” or pick ‘em has a spread of zero, which turns the bet into a pick on the winner. ATS stands for against the spread. A team that’s 6-2 ATS has covered six of its eight spreads, whatever its straight-up record.

What -110 means and where the vig comes from

The price next to the spread is in American odds. At -110, a bettor risks $110 to win $100, or $11 to win $10, and a winning $110 bet returns $210. It’s the same odds math used on every bet type, covered in how to bet on football.

Pricing both sides at -110 is how a sportsbook gets paid. If one bettor puts $110 on each side, the book takes in $220, pays the winner $210 and keeps $10, which is 4.55% of the money wagered. For the bettor, -110 implies a 52.38% chance (110 divided by 210). A spread bettor who wins 52.38% of the time breaks even, and one who wins exactly half the time loses money.

On prediction markets, bettors trade against each other and the platform charges fees instead of pricing a margin into the line. Novig charges no fee on pre-game straight trades, so a side the market sees as a coin flip trades at 50 cents to pay $1. That’s even money, and the break-even rate is 50%. Fees elsewhere and the other differences are covered in prediction markets vs. sportsbooks.

Covering, pushes and half points

A team covers when it beats the spread. When the margin lands exactly on a whole-number spread, the bet is a push: neither side wins, and both get their stakes back. With the Eagles at -7, a 27-20 final is a push.

Half points, called the hook, rule that out. A spread of -6.5 or -7.5 can’t land exactly, so there’s always a winner and a loser. The hook also decides which side of a common margin, such as 3 or 7, the bettor ends up on.

Key numbers: why 3 and 7 matter

NFL points come mostly in field goals worth three and touchdowns worth seven with the extra point, so final margins bunch up on a few numbers. In the 2015 through 2025 seasons, regular season and playoffs, the most common margins in nflverse game data were these:

Three and seven together account for 712 games, or 23.5%. By comparison, a nine-point margin came up in 1.7% of games. The window starts in 2015, the season the NFL moved the extra-point snap back to the 15-yard line.

That’s why a half point across 3 or 7 is worth more than a half point anywhere else. A bettor holding the favorite at -2.5 wins every three-point win; at -3.5, the same games lose. Of the 433 games in that data listed with a spread of exactly 3, 44 (10.2%) landed on 3 and pushed. Books sometimes raise the price on -3, to -120 for example, so they don’t have to move the line to -3.5.

How spreads are set and why they move

Oddsmakers open a spread from team ratings adjusted for home field, rest and injuries, and the betting market moves it from there. Injury news and lopsided betting both push the number. A spread that opens at Eagles -6.5 might go to -7 after a Giants starter is ruled out, or drop to -6 if bettors back New York.

A bet is graded at the number taken when it was placed, not the closing line. Someone who took Eagles -6.5 on Tuesday still needs only a seven-point win if the game closes at -7.5. Books also post different numbers on the same game at the same time, so it pays to compare them before betting. The weekly NFL odds page tracks where each spread sits.

Alternate spreads and buying points

Most sportsbooks list alternate spreads: the same game at other numbers, with the price adjusted. Moving the line in the bettor’s favor costs more, and moving it the other way pays more. On a game at Eagles -6.5 (-110), an alternate of Eagles -3.5 might be priced around -165, which needs a 62.26% win rate to break even, while Eagles -10.5 might pay around +170.

Buying a half point is the same trade on a smaller scale. Taking -2.5 at -125 instead of -3 at -110 raises the break-even rate from 52.38% to 55.56%. Whether that’s worth paying depends on how often games land on the number being bought: on 3 it’s close to 15% of games, and on 9 it’s under 2%.

Teasers in brief

A teaser is a parlay that moves every spread in the bettor’s favor by a set amount, most often six points in the NFL, in exchange for a lower payout than a regular parlay of the same legs. Every leg still has to win. A two-team six-point teaser turns Giants +2 into +8 and Eagles -7.5 into -1.5.

Both legs in that example fit what bettors call a Wong teaser, which moves underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 and favorites of -7.5 to -8.5, so each line crosses both 3 and 7.

Point spread vs. moneyline

The moneyline doesn’t care about the margin, so the whole gap between the teams goes into the price. The same hypothetical game might list the Eagles at -280 and the Giants at +230. A $100 bet on the Eagles at -280 wins $35.71, and $100 on the Giants wins $230. On the spread, either side wins $100 for $110.

The closer the spread is to zero, the less the two bets differ. A favorite at -2.5 on the spread and the same team on the moneyline both win whenever that team wins by three or more. They split on wins by one or two points, which made up 9.1% of games from 2015 through 2025. At that size, it’s mostly a question of price, and the moneyline explainer covers how to compare them.

Point spread FAQ

What does +3.5 mean in football betting?

A team at +3.5 is a 3.5-point underdog. A bet on it wins if the team wins outright or loses by three or fewer, and loses if the team loses by four or more. A half-point spread can’t push.

What is the hook in sports betting?

The hook is the half point on a spread, as in -6.5 or +3.5. It rules out a push, and on numbers next to 3 or 7 it’s often what decides the bet.

What happens to a spread bet if an NFL game ends in a tie?

The underdog side wins, since a tie means the underdog didn’t lose at all. A pick ‘em spread on a tied game is a push.

What is the most common margin of victory in the NFL?

Three points. It covered 14.8% of games from 2015 through 2025, followed by seven points at 8.7%.