How-To
Updated
·
Fact checked by
Editorial Team
How to find the best moneyline price on an NFL game: comparing sportsbooks and prediction markets side by side, shopping the favorite and underdog separately, and what fees change.
No single app: the best moneyline on the favorite and the best on the underdog can come from different apps, so it's worth shopping each side separately.
Comparing prices: convert every price to an implied probability. On the same side of the same game, the lower probability is the better bet.
Prediction markets: a contract price converts straight to American odds. On Novig a pre-game moneyline carries no fee, so 60 cents is exactly -150. A taker fee at Kalshi or Polymarket turns the same 60 cents into about -161.
Underdogs: on plus-money sides, a better price means a bigger payout. $100 on an underdog at +150 wins $15 more than at +135.
Heavy favorites: Kalshi's taker fee falls from $1.75 per 100 contracts at 50 cents to $1.12 at 80 cents, while a sportsbook splits its margin across both prices.
The best moneyline odds on an NFL game come from comparing the same side across several apps, and there's no one app that wins every game. Odds Reference found the same pattern in its historical sportsbook data: the book with the best line varies by sport, by game and by time of day.
Prediction markets shouldn't be left out of that comparison. They quote a moneyline as a contract price in cents, and users set that price. On Novig, a pre-game moneyline counts as a straight trade, and the published fee schedule puts no fee on either side of it, so the converted price is the whole cost of the bet.
Convert each price to an implied probability, then compare the same side across apps. A minus price of -X becomes X / (X + 100), and a plus price of +X becomes 100 / (X + 100). The moneyline guide covers the conversion and payout math in full.
Here's a hypothetical game, not a current one, priced at three sportsbooks and one prediction market:
Where | Favorite | Underdog | Implied probabilities added up |
|---|---|---|---|
Book A | -165 (62.26%) | +140 (41.67%) | 103.93% |
Book B | -155 (60.78%) | +135 (42.55%) | 103.34% |
Book C | -170 (62.96%) | +150 (40.00%) | 102.96% |
Novig, pre-game | 60 cents, or -150 (60.00%) | 41 cents, or about +144 (41.00%) | 101.00% |
The best favorite price in this example is the 60-cent contract, the same as -150. The best underdog price is Book C's +150. Book C has the lowest total of the three sportsbooks, and it's still the worst place in the table to bet the favorite. Across the three sportsbooks alone, the best favorite price (-155) and the best underdog price (+150) add up to 100.78%, against 102.96% to 103.93% at any single book. With the 60-cent contract in the mix, the best numbers on each side add up to exactly 100%.
A book's moneyline total is its margin across both sides combined. Two books with the same total don't have to split it the same way, one shading the favorite and the other the underdog, so the price to compare is the one on the side you want to bet.
On a favorite, a better price means risking less to win the same amount. Winning $100 at -150 costs $150, and at -170 it costs $170. On an underdog it means a bigger payout: $100 at +150 wins $150, and at +135 it wins $135. The best odds comparison sites guide covers screens that line up every book's moneyline for each game.
Some of the main odds screens, VegasInsider and SportsbookReview among them, leave prediction markets out, so a contract price often has to be converted by hand. Under 50 cents, the American price is (1 - price) / price x 100, so 41 cents is about +144. Over 50 cents, it's price / (1 - price) x 100 as a minus number, so 60 cents is -150.
Fees change the converted price, and the size of the change depends on the platform and on whether you're taking an existing order or posting your own. These are the same two contracts from the example, bought by a taker before kickoff:
Platform | Favorite at 60 cents | Underdog at 41 cents |
|---|---|---|
Novig | -150 (no fee) | About +144 (no fee) |
ProphetX, 2% of net winnings | About -153 | About +141 |
Polymarket, taker fee | About -161 | About +134 |
Kalshi, taker fee | About -161 | About +134 |
Fees as published on October 22, 2026.
With a taker fee, the 60-cent favorite on Kalshi or Polymarket costs more than Book B's -155, and the 41-cent underdog pays less than every sportsbook in the example. A user who posts an order and waits to be filled is the maker. Makers pay nothing on Novig or Polymarket, and Kalshi charges them a smaller fee on its NFL game markets, about 44 cents per 100 contracts at 50 cents.
The contract price also depends on the order book. The gap between the best buy and sell price is narrowest on heavily traded main lines and can widen on quieter markets. That gap works the same way as a sportsbook's margin, so it belongs in the comparison too. The lowest juice NFL betting apps guide compares fees on every NFL bet type.
Fees and margins don't behave the same way at the extremes of the price range. Take a hypothetical game with the favorite at -400 and the underdog at +310: those add up to 104.39%, close to the 104.76% of a -110 point spread, with the margin split across both prices.
Kalshi and Polymarket set taker fees with a formula of price x (1 - price), so they're largest at 50 cents and shrink toward the edges. A Kalshi taker fee on an 80-cent favorite is $1.12 per 100 contracts, which makes the price about -430 against -400 with no fee. On a 21-cent underdog it turns about +376 into about +351.
For a heavy favorite, a sportsbook moneyline asks you to risk several times what you'd win, and the moneyline guide compares that with taking the same team on the spread.
Live moneylines reprice after every score, turnover and injury. On a prediction market, live trades carry a taker fee, Novig's included, so a live favorite costs a taker more than the contract price alone. A maker whose resting order fills pays nothing on Novig, and posting a price and waiting avoids the fee on live markets too.
Accounts: hold two or three sportsbook accounts plus a prediction market, so there's more than one price to compare on every game.
Conversion: put every price in implied probability, or every price in American odds, before comparing.
Side: compare the price on the side you want to bet.
Fees: add the taker fee to a prediction-market price before converting, or post your own order where makers trade free.
Availability: sportsbooks take bets only in licensed states. The where sports betting is legal guide lists each state.
Novig requires users to be 21 and isn't available in Arizona, Michigan or Nevada. Its status in Ohio is unsettled after the state's casino regulator sent it a cease-and-desist letter in October 2026.
No single app has the best price on every game. Compare the side you want across several apps. Before kickoff, Novig charges no fee on moneylines, so its contract price converts directly to the American odds you're getting.
On an underdog, $100 at +150 wins $15 more than at +135. On a favorite, winning $100 at -150 takes $20 less than at -170.
Under 50 cents, divide (1 - price) by the price and multiply by 100 for plus odds: 41 cents is about +144. Over 50 cents, divide the price by (1 - price) and multiply by 100 for minus odds: 60 cents is -150.
Each book sets its own prices and moves them with its own action and risk. One book may shade the favorite while another shades the underdog, which is why each side is shopped on its own.
On a prediction market, users trade with each other, so there's no juice built into the price. What you pay is the contract price plus any posted fee.
Bettors must be 21 or older in most states. Gamble responsibly: if betting stops being fun, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738), and ncpgambling.org has more resources.
