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The AFC and NFC favorites as of Nov. 4, 2026, how a conference winner bet settles, how seeding shapes the path to the title game, and how a sportsbook price compares with a contract.
Favorites: on Nov. 4, 2026, DraftKings had the Bills favored to win the AFC at +310, ahead of the Jaguars (+420) and Chiefs (+500). The 49ers led the NFC at +255, with the Bears at +400 and the Rams at +600.
The bet: a conference winner ticket cashes if the team wins its conference championship game, played Jan. 31, 2027. Losing the Super Bowl afterward doesn’t matter.
The No. 1 seed: in six seasons of the 14-team format, No. 1 seeds have won six of the 12 conference titles. The bye and home field are why the top seed’s price shortens late in the season.
Board cost: DraftKings’ AFC board added up to 115.6% and its NFC board to 118.1%, so roughly 13% to 15% of every dollar on these boards is margin if the book’s action matched its prices.
Prediction markets: Kalshi’s ask on the Jaguars, with its taker fee, worked out to about +456 against +420 at DraftKings, while DraftKings had the better price on the Bills. Novig lists conference winner futures, and a maker whose order fills there pays no fee.
The Buffalo Bills are the favorite to win the AFC and the San Francisco 49ers are the favorite to win the NFC, as of Nov. 4, 2026. DraftKings had Buffalo at +310 after its 36-10 win over Baltimore in Week 8, and San Francisco at +255 coming off its bye. These prices move every week, so treat them as a snapshot.
AFC winner, DraftKings, Nov. 4, 2026:
Team | Price | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
Buffalo Bills | +310 | 24.39% |
Jacksonville Jaguars | +420 | 19.23% |
Kansas City Chiefs | +500 | 16.67% |
Cincinnati Bengals | +620 | 13.89% |
Denver Broncos | +650 | 13.33% |
New England Patriots | +750 | 11.76% |
Pittsburgh Steelers | +1600 | 5.88% |
Other nine teams | +2000 to +50000 | 10.45% |
Total | 115.61% |
NFC winner, DraftKings, Nov. 4, 2026:
Team | Price | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
San Francisco 49ers | +255 | 28.17% |
Chicago Bears | +400 | 20.00% |
Los Angeles Rams | +600 | 14.29% |
Seattle Seahawks | +700 | 12.50% |
Detroit Lions | +900 | 10.00% |
Minnesota Vikings | +1000 | 9.09% |
Green Bay Packers | +1550 | 6.06% |
Other nine teams | +2350 to +45000 | 18.02% |
Total | 118.13% |
A week earlier, Fox Sports’ weekly board had the Jaguars at +540 and the Bills at +385. Jacksonville’s 42-7 win over Indianapolis in Week 8 is most of that move.
A conference winner bet, sold as “AFC Winner” or “NFC Winner” or “to win the AFC Championship,” is a season-long future on one team. It wins if that team wins its conference championship game and loses in every other case: missing the playoffs, losing in the Wild Card, Divisional, or title round. There’s no push, because every team either wins the conference or doesn’t.
The 2026 postseason runs on this calendar:
Wild Card round: Jan. 16 to 18, 2027.
Divisional round: Jan. 23 and 24.
AFC and NFC Championship Games: Jan. 31.
Super Bowl LXI: Feb. 14 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
The ticket is settled at the end of the conference title game, two weeks before the Super Bowl. A team that wins the AFC and then loses the Super Bowl has still won the bet. A Super Bowl future needs one more win and pays more for it.
A bet placed now ties up the stake for about three months. That cost doesn’t appear in the price, and it’s part of why some bettors wait until the playoff field is set.
Seven teams in each conference make the playoffs. The four division winners take seeds 1 to 4 and the three wild cards take 5 to 7. Only the No. 1 seed skips the Wild Card round, and the higher seed hosts every game through the conference championship. The NFL playoff odds guide covers the format and make-or-miss bets in more detail.
The bye shows up in the results. Since the field grew to 14 teams for the 2020 season, these are the seeds that won each conference:
Season | AFC champion (seed) | NFC champion (seed) |
|---|---|---|
2020 | Kansas City (1) | Tampa Bay (5) |
2021 | Cincinnati (4) | Los Angeles Rams (4) |
2022 | Kansas City (1) | Philadelphia (1) |
2023 | Kansas City (3) | San Francisco (1) |
2024 | Kansas City (1) | Philadelphia (2) |
2025 | New England (2) | Seattle (1) |
No. 1 seeds won six of the 12 titles. A No. 1 seed needs two home wins to reach the Super Bowl, while a wild card needs three, usually all on the road. The 2020 Buccaneers are the only team seeded fifth or lower to win a conference in this format.
The race for the top seed moves conference prices for that reason. A contender that falls from first to fifth in the standings picks up an extra game and loses home field, and its price drifts even if its rating hasn’t changed. Sportsbooks often post a separate No. 1 seed market next to the conference winner board.
Each price converts to an implied probability. For a plus price of +X, it’s 100 / (X + 100), so the Bills at +310 come out to 24.39%. The moneyline guide walks through the conversion if it’s new.
One team wins each conference, so fair prices would add to 100%. The AFC board adds to 115.61% and the NFC board to 118.13%. Divide each probability by the board’s total to strip the margin out evenly, and the Bills drop from 24.39% to about 21.1%, or roughly +374 against the +310 on offer. The 49ers drop from 28.17% to about 23.8%, roughly +319 against +255. Books don’t always spread the margin evenly, so these are estimates. The lowest vig NFL futures guide compares that margin across every futures board.
The long shots carry a lot of it. The nine NFC teams at +2350 or longer add up to 18.02%, close to the Lions and Vikings combined.
A conference price also anchors a Super Bowl price, since a team has to win the conference first. If the Bills are about 21% to win the AFC and a coin flip in the final, their fair Super Bowl chance is about 10.5%, or roughly +850.
On a prediction market, a conference future is a yes or no contract that pays $1 if the team wins the conference and $0 if it doesn’t. The price is set by other users’ orders. Kalshi lists AFC and NFC champion contracts for all 32 teams, and Novig’s help center lists Conference Winner among its NFL futures.
Kalshi’s best asks at about 11:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 4, 2026, priced for a taker with its fee added, compared with DraftKings at the same time:
Team | DraftKings | Kalshi ask | Kalshi ask with taker fee |
|---|---|---|---|
Buffalo Bills | +310 | 24 cents | About +296 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | +420 | 17 cents | About +456 |
Kansas City Chiefs | +500 | 16 cents | About +490 |
Cincinnati Bengals | +620 | 12 cents | About +685 |
San Francisco 49ers | +255 | 25 cents | About +280 |
Chicago Bears | +400 | 17 cents | About +456 |
Los Angeles Rams | +600 | 12 cents | About +685 |
Seattle Seahawks | +700 | 11 cents | About +755 |
Neither side wins every row. DraftKings paid more on the Bills and Chiefs, and the contract paid more on the other six. The asks on each Kalshi board added up to $1.08 in the AFC and $1.09 in the NFC, against $1.16 and $1.18 at DraftKings, but a taker still pays the fee on top of each ask, so the price on the team you want is the comparison that counts.
Novig’s published fee schedule charges a taker fee on futures, which its own worked example puts at 77 cents on 100 contracts at 15 cents, for a total cost of $15.77. Makers pay no fee on any trade type, and on eligible futures a filled maker order also earns a credit under Novig’s Maker Credit Program. A bettor who posts a bid below the current offer and waits pays only the price they set.
A contract can also be sold before the title game. If a team at 12 cents climbs to 30 cents by the Divisional round, the holder can sell at the market price instead of waiting for the result. Some sportsbooks offer cash out on futures, at a price the book sets.
Novig requires users to be 21 and isn’t available in Arizona, Michigan, or Nevada. Its status in Ohio is unsettled after the state’s casino regulator sent it a cease-and-desist letter in October 2026. Kalshi opens accounts at 18. Sportsbooks take bets only in states that license them, listed in the where sports betting is legal guide.
The Buffalo Bills, at +310 at DraftKings on Nov. 4, 2026. The Jaguars were next at +420, then the Chiefs at +500 and the Bengals at +620.
The San Francisco 49ers, at +255 at DraftKings on Nov. 4, 2026, ahead of the Bears at +400 and the Rams at +600.
Both are scheduled for Jan. 31, 2027, at the home stadium of the higher-seeded team. The winners meet in Super Bowl LXI on Feb. 14, 2027.
Yes. The bet settles on the conference championship game, so winning the AFC or NFC cashes it whatever happens in the Super Bowl.
Six times in 12 tries since the playoffs went to 14 teams in 2020. The 2020 Buccaneers, a No. 5 seed, are the lowest seed to win a conference in that span.
Yes, in most states. Kalshi and Novig list AFC and NFC winner contracts as prediction markets. Novig charges takers a fee on futures, and a maker whose posted order fills pays no fee.
Bettors must be 21 or older in most states. Gamble responsibly: if betting stops being fun, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738), and ncpgambling.org has more resources.
