Comparisons
Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Novig for NFL Betting in 2026
Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Novig for NFL bettors: pre-game and live fees, maker costs, CFTC status, state orders, age limits, NFL markets and withdrawals.
Comparison
Where to Bet NFL Futures With the Lowest Vig
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Summary
How to find the hold on an NFL futures board, why it runs higher than on game lines, and where futures cost the least: sportsbooks or prediction markets.
Key takeaways
Measuring vig: add up the implied probability of every price on a futures board. Anything over 100% is the book’s margin. DraftKings’ AFC winner board summed to 115.2% on Oct. 13, 2026, against 104.8% for a pair of -110 sides.
Award boards: the same day, DraftKings’ Coach of the Year board added up to 141.2% and its Defensive Player of the Year board to 175.0%.
Prediction markets: other users set the price and the fee is posted separately. On Novig the futures taker pays 0.06 x price x (1 - price) per contract, and a user who posts a resting order pays nothing.
Other platforms: Kalshi’s taker fee on most markets runs from $0.07 to $1.75 per 100 contracts. Polymarket US charges takers on sports contracts, and makers don’t pay.
Depth: a sportsbook quotes every team and candidate all season. On a prediction market, the price on a long shot depends on who’s posting orders.
The cheapest places to bet NFL futures
On posted costs, an NFL futures position usually comes cheaper on a prediction market than at a sportsbook. A prediction market lets users trade contracts with each other and charges a posted fee, while a sportsbook builds its margin into every price on the board. On the two fee schedules compared below, a futures taker fee stays under 7% of the stake. DraftKings’ conference winner boards carried a hold of about 13% on Oct. 13, 2026, and its award boards ran higher.
Sportsbooks quote a price on every team and every award candidate at any hour, plus a range of side markets. A prediction market’s futures price comes from its order book, so on a thinly traded long shot the gap between the best buy and sell price can be wide.
How to calculate the hold on a futures board
Convert each price to an implied probability. A plus price of +X becomes 100 / (X + 100), and a minus price of -X becomes X / (X + 100). The moneyline guide walks through reading American odds if those are new. Then add up the whole board.
DraftKings’ AFC winner board, pulled on Oct. 13, 2026, works as an example. Futures prices move every week, so treat these as a snapshot.
Team | DraftKings price | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
Buffalo Bills | +440 | 18.52% |
Baltimore Ravens | +440 | 18.52% |
Kansas City Chiefs | +460 | 17.86% |
Jacksonville Jaguars | +470 | 17.54% |
New England Patriots | +680 | 12.82% |
Cincinnati Bengals | +980 | 9.26% |
Denver Broncos | +1075 | 8.51% |
Other nine teams | +2500 to +20000 | 12.19% |
Total | 115.22% |
One team will win the AFC, so fair prices would add up to 100%. That extra 15.2 points is the overround, and it’s the book’s margin. If DraftKings took bets on every team in proportion to its prices, it would keep 1 - 1 / 1.1522, or 13.2% of the money wagered, whoever won. The same math on a -110 point spread gives 104.8% and a hold of about 4.5%.
You can also estimate a fair price for one team. Take the margin out evenly and the Bills’ 18.52% drops to about 16.1%, which is roughly +522 against the +440 on the board. Books don’t always spread the margin evenly, so it’s an estimate.
Why futures hold runs higher than game lines
A point spread has two prices to carry the margin. A conference board has 16, and every one of them carries some. The nine AFC teams at +2500 or longer added 12.19 points between them, almost as much as the Patriots alone.
An AFC futures ticket bought in October doesn’t settle until the AFC Championship Game in January, and the stake sits with the book the whole time. Money that’s tied up for three months or more has a cost of its own on top of the posted margin.
Award boards cost the most. The player boards list 70 to 96 names, and even the 32-name Coach of the Year board carries nearly twice the Super Bowl board’s overround. DraftKings’ main boards added up like this on Oct. 13, 2026:
DraftKings board | Selections listed | Sum of implied probabilities | Hold if bet in proportion |
|---|---|---|---|
AFC winner | 16 | 115.2% | 13.2% |
NFC winner | 16 | 115.6% | 13.5% |
Super Bowl winner | 32 | 121.5% | 17.7% |
Coach of the Year | 32 | 141.2% | 29.2% |
MVP | 70 | 146.4% | 31.7% |
Offensive Player of the Year | 93 | 170.6% | 41.4% |
Defensive Player of the Year | 96 | 175.0% | 42.9% |
The hold column assumes money comes in exactly in line with the prices, which never happens. It’s still a fair way to compare one board with another.
What NFL futures cost on a prediction market
On a prediction market, a futures contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn’t. A Bills-to-win-the-AFC contract at 18 cents is the market’s 18% estimate. That price comes from users buying and selling against each other, so there’s no house margin inside it, and the platform charges its fee on top.
Novig’s published fee schedule sets the futures taker fee at 0.06 x price x (1 - price) per contract. The maker fee is $0 on every trade type, so a user who posts their own price and waits for someone to take it pays nothing. Pre-game straight trades carry no fee for either side, but futures are a separate trade type with their own rate.
As a share of the stake, that taker fee works out to 0.06 x (1 - price), so it never reaches 6%. It’s highest on long shots and smallest on heavy favorites. Kalshi’s taker fee on most markets uses the same shape with a 0.07 multiplier, which tops out at $1.75 per 100 contracts at 50 cents. Polymarket US charges takers a fee on sports contracts and charges makers nothing.
Trade: 100 contracts at 20 cents ($20 stake) | Fee | Fee as a share of the stake |
|---|---|---|
Novig, taker | $0.96 | 4.8% |
Novig, maker | $0.00 | 0% |
Kalshi, taker on a standard market | $1.12 | 5.6% |
A taker also pays the spread. If the best offer on a contract is 22 cents and the best bid is 18, a taker who buys right away pays the 22. A maker who posts a bid at 19 or 20 and gets filled pays less, and pays no fee on top where the maker side is free. The prediction markets vs sportsbooks guide covers the same mechanics on game lines.
Which platform fits which futures bettor
Patient bettors: on a prediction market with no maker fee, a resting order costs nothing extra when it fills, so the price you pay is the price you set.
Bettors who want a fill now: add the taker fee to the offer price and compare the total with the sportsbook’s price on the same team. The answer changes team by team.
Award bettors: DraftKings’ award boards carried the largest overround of its main futures boards, so a market-set price has the most room to come in cheaper there.
Under 21: Kalshi accepts users at 18, and some other prediction markets set their minimum below 21. The NFL prediction market comparison covers fees, age limits and markets platform by platform.
Novig requires users to be 21 and isn’t available in Arizona, Michigan or Nevada. Its status in Ohio is unsettled after the state’s casino regulator sent it a cease-and-desist letter in October 2026. Sportsbooks take bets only in states that license them.
NFL futures vig FAQ
Who is favored to win the Super Bowl and the conferences?
At DraftKings on Oct. 13, 2026, the 49ers and Rams were co-favorites to win the Super Bowl at +700, with the Bills and Ravens at +800. The 49ers led the NFC at +280, and the Bills and Ravens shared the AFC lead at +440.
Who is favored to win NFL MVP?
Josh Allen was the DraftKings favorite at +250 on Oct. 13, 2026, ahead of Brock Purdy at +300 and Patrick Mahomes at +650.
What is the vig on NFL futures?
It depends on the board. DraftKings’ conference boards carried about 13% on Oct. 13, 2026, the Super Bowl board about 18%, and the award boards from 29% to 43%. A -110 point spread carries about 4.5%.
Does Novig charge a fee on NFL futures?
Takers pay 0.06 x price x (1 - price) per contract, which is $0.96 on 100 contracts at 20 cents. Makers pay nothing, so posting your own price and getting filled doesn’t cost a fee.
How do I find the hold on any futures board?
Convert every price to an implied probability, add them up and subtract 100%. Dividing 1 by the total and subtracting that from 1 gives the hold if the book’s action matched its prices.
Bettors must be 21 or older in most states. Gamble responsibly: if betting stops being fun, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738), and ncpgambling.org has more resources.
