How-To
Updated
·
Fact checked by
Editorial Team
How NFL make-or-miss playoff bets work: reading both prices, the hold, the 14-team format and seeding, and how a prediction market prices a yes/no contract.
Favorites: on Oct. 13, 2026, DraftKings had the 49ers shortest to make the playoffs at -3003, followed by the Bills at -1000, the Chiefs at -950 and the Jaguars and Vikings at -650.
The bet: a make-the-playoffs ticket wins if the team gets in by any route, division title or wild card. A miss ticket wins if it doesn’t.
Two prices: a sportsbook prices “make” and “miss” separately. DraftKings had the Bears at -125 to make and +105 to miss, and that’s 104.3% in total, a margin close to a -110 point spread.
Format: 14 teams qualify, seven per conference. Four division winners take seeds 1 to 4, three wild cards take 5 to 7, and only the No. 1 seed doesn’t play in the first round.
Prediction markets: a playoff contract pays $1 if the team gets in, and buying “no” is the miss bet. The best yes and no offers add up to a little over $1, and the excess is the spread between users’ orders.
As of Oct. 13, 2026, the San Francisco 49ers have the best odds to make the playoffs at DraftKings, at -3003 after a 5-0 start. Buffalo (-1000), Kansas City (-950), Jacksonville (-650) and Minnesota (-650) are next, with Baltimore (-450), New England (-340) and the Rams (-270) also priced as likely playoff teams. Those prices move every week, so check the current board before betting.
A price of -3003 means risking $3,003 to win $100. That works out to an implied probability of about 96.8%. The moneyline guide covers converting American odds if the math is new.
A make-the-playoffs bet is a season-long future with two outcomes. Either the team is one of the 14 that qualify or it isn’t. Winning the division counts, and so does any of the three wild card spots, so the bet doesn’t care how the team gets in.
Sportsbooks usually list the make and miss sides as separate markets. The result is known once a team clinches a spot or is eliminated, and when the book pays out depends on its house rules.
Here are the Chicago Bears at DraftKings on Oct. 13, 2026, two days after a 31-7 loss to Green Bay:
Bet | Price | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
Bears to make the playoffs | -125 | 55.56% |
Bears to miss the playoffs | +105 | 48.78% |
Total | 104.34% |
The Bears either make it or they don’t, so fair prices would add to 100%. The extra 4.34 points is the book’s margin, and if DraftKings took matching action on both sides at those prices it would keep about 4.2% of the money. A -110 point spread carries about 4.5%, so this pair is priced in the same range as a game line.
Lopsided teams carry a margin too. The 49ers were -3003 to make the playoffs and +1500 to miss on the same day, which is 96.78% plus 6.25%, or 103.0% in total.
Make and miss prices differ from book to book, so it pays to check the same team in more than one place. The game-by-game lines that move these futures each week are on the NFL odds hub.
The playoffs take 14 teams, seven from the AFC and seven from the NFC. In each conference:
Seeds 1 to 4: the four division winners, ranked by record.
Seeds 5 to 7: the three wild cards, the best records among the teams that didn’t win their division.
Bye: only the No. 1 seed skips the Wild Card round.
After the first round: the No. 1 seed plays the lowest seed left, and the higher seed gets home-field advantage.
Ties in the standings go through the NFL’s tie-breaking procedures, which start with head-to-head record. The format didn’t change for 2026: the rule changes owners approved at the March 2026 league meeting covered kickoffs, onside kicks and officiating.
Seeding has its own markets. Sportsbooks often post No. 1 seed odds next to make or miss, and those have more than two outcomes.
On a prediction market, the same bet is a single contract that pays $1 if the team makes the playoffs and $0 if it doesn’t. Buying “yes” is the make bet and buying “no” is the miss bet. The price is the market’s estimate: a yes contract at 56 cents means 56%.
Other users post bids and offers, and the platform adds no margin. The gap between the best yes offer and $1 minus the best no offer is the spread. On Kalshi at about 1:15 p.m. ET on Oct. 13, 2026, Bears yes was offered at 57 cents and Bears no at 45 cents. Buying both would have cost $1.02 for a guaranteed $1, a 2-cent spread, before Kalshi’s taker fee. The DraftKings pair above works out to about $1.04 for the same $1.
Ludlow Exchange, the CFTC-designated contract market that does business as Novig, has self-certified a playoff achievement contract for NFL teams, with the Patriots to make the playoffs as its example listing. The contract settles on the NFL’s official result. Futures on Novig carry a taker fee of 0.06 x price x (1 - price) per contract under its published fee schedule, which is $1.48 on 100 contracts at 56 cents, and the maker pays nothing. A bettor who posts a bid inside the spread and waits for it to fill pays the price they chose and no fee.
A sportsbook prices all 32 teams on both sides every day, while a prediction market’s price depends on who’s posting orders, and bubble teams in a quiet week can show a wide gap. The prediction markets vs sportsbooks guide covers the mechanics on game lines. Novig requires users to be 21 and isn’t available in Arizona, Michigan or Nevada. Its status in Ohio is unsettled after the state’s casino regulator sent it a cease-and-desist letter in October 2026.
On Oct. 13, 2026, DraftKings had the 49ers at -3003, the Bills at -1000, the Chiefs at -950 and the Jaguars and Vikings at -650. The Ravens (-450), Patriots (-340) and Rams (-270) were also favored to get in.
The field is 14 teams: the four division winners and three wild cards from each conference. Only the No. 1 seed in each conference gets a first-round bye.
Yes. Any route into the 14-team field cashes the bet, whether it’s a division title or a wild card spot.
Yes. Sportsbooks post a separate miss price for each team, and on a prediction market the miss bet is the “no” side of the playoff contract.
Add the implied probabilities of both prices and subtract 100%. The Bears’ -125 and +105 at DraftKings came to 104.34% on Oct. 13, 2026, close to the 104.76% of a -110 point spread.
Bettors must be 21 or older in most states. Gamble responsibly: if betting stops being fun, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738), and ncpgambling.org has more resources.
